Additional Information and Thoughts
This section contains extra information and personal thoughts about the economic impact of US Presidents.
- The US inflation is the single most important event in all of democracy and it happens every 4 years.
- There is obviously a lot of misinformation and exaggeration but I believe only in data and facts.
- Data and facts are the things that keep the economy going and also what matters at the end of the day.
- Stock market performance:
- In the 23 election years since the S&P 500 index began, 19 years (83%) provided positive returns.
- The average S&P 500 return across all election years from 1928 to 2016 was 11.28%.
- When a Republican was elected, the average return was 15.3%.
- When a Democrat was elected, the average return was 7.6%.
- Economic conditions and incumbent party success:
- The incumbent party won in 13 out of 24 presidential elections studied.
- Only once did the incumbent party win when the election took place in a recession year (1948).
- In over 70% of incumbent party losses, the economy had been in recession that year or entered one within 12 months.